Many members of the Home Builders Association of Greater Springfield attended the 2013 International Builders’ Show and “Housing is on the Rebound” was the buzz everywhere. All segments of the home building industry should continue to grow in 2013, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Economics. Housing and economic forecast for single-family and multifamily construction will see strong growth rates, with remodeling still experiencing positive growth.
The across-the-board growth forecast for the housing sector should result in job gains in 2013. NAHB estimates that on average, every single-family home built generates enough work to create three jobs. However, there was some slowing of elements of housing at the end of the year. The Pending Home Sales Index, produced by the National Association of Realtors, fell in December but remains strongly higher year over year. Inventories of existing homes continued their decline.
As recent trends indicate the 55 year old and older sector should witness growth comparable to that of single-family and multifamily building. NAHB estimates that total starts allocable to 55+ communities will increase 21.9% to 74,000 in 2013 and 19.9% to 89,000 in 2014. Demographics are driving this growth; the share of U.S. households aged 55 and over will increase from 42% in 2012. Single-family 55+ starts will be up 23% in 2013, while construction of multifamily 55+ housing units will increase 20.8%.
According to the MarketGraphics Research Group, a six-county area monitored for Southwest Missouri ended 2012 with a 24% increase in the total number of permits compared to 2011. For Barry, Christian, Greene, Stone, Taney and Webster counties, the building permit total for 2012 was 1,062. That’s an increase of more than 200 homes when compared to the 2011 total. Much of that increase was experienced in Greene County (including metro areas) which went from 388 permits in 2011 to 510 in 2012. Nationally, there were 535,000 single-family housing starts in 2012 showing an increase of 24% over 2011. For 2013, the NAHB is forecasting that single-family starts will total 650,000, a growth rate of 22%.
Multifamily construction is expected to continue expansion into 2013. This rebound has been in part to the strong demand for rental properties and apartment complexes. Locally, there has been a collaboration of efforts by local developers and universities to replace blighted homes with new student housing units surrounding Missouri State University and Drury campuses.
Amidst this lackluster economic news, housing data continue to be positive. The National Association of Home Builders/ First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) rose to a count of 259 in February, up from 242 in the previous month. The recovery in housing is officially nationwide, as at least one market from every state now appears on the IMI list.