For the six-county area the Zanola Company monitors for us in Southwest Missouri, we ended 2012 with a 24% increase in the total number of permits from 2011. For Barry, Christian, Greene, Stone, Taney and Webster counties, the building permit total for 2012 was 1,062. That’s an increase of more than 200 homes when compared to the 2011 total. Much of that increase was experienced in Greene County (including metro areas) which went from 388 permits in 2011 to 510 in 2012.
The latest January 2013 MarketGraphics® report shows an expansion of the areas where supply and demand are approaching balance. In September, two large sections of Greene County, the southern half of Christian County and most of Webster County appeared to be at a healthy spot in terms of the supply of new homes and the projected demand for the coming year. In January, the northern part of Christian County, which includes Clever, Nixa and Ozark, was added to the areas considered to be approaching that desirable balance between supply and demand.
In Christian County, the chart showing Historical New Home Inventory vs. Projected Demand shows that trend over the past few months toward balance as the net home inventory comes closer to the yellow line which represents 20% of closings.
Forecast data does show a rate of growth where the number of homes needed annually nearly doubles over the next five years, helping to address long term issues with lot inventory. While there are many factors related to demand over which we have little control, there are positive signs. Area unemployment is well below the December national average of 7.6% — the Springfield MSA was at 5.4% unemployment in December, 2012.
Want to know more about the detailed data inside the January 2013 MarketGraphics® report? As an HBA member, you are welcome to review the report in person at the HBA office. If you are interested in having direct access to the reports and full data on a regular basis, subscription options are available. Call the HBA office at 881.3711 for additional information.